Investigating the Aspiration and Feasibility

117 Investigating the aspiration and feasibility of a Turkish shift to nuclear weapons Is Erdogan’s narrative something to fear? [...] This paper will thus analyse the current po- litical and security concerns within Türkiye to understand if there is a realistic material rea- soning behind Türkiye’s acquiring of nuclear weapons, especially regarding deterrence and security towards powers that have recently developed nuclear weaponry. [...] Although there are numerous critiques on re- alist perspectives due to their incompatibility with the historical realities of nuclear prolifer- ation, this next section will aim to analyse the security threats that exist for Türkiye and how it may translate into a drive for nuclear arma- ment. [...] In a second part, three-level idealist perspectives will be adopted to consider whether nuclear power and weap- onry will proliferate in Türkiye in relation to international circumstances, domestic percep- tions and the influence of political figures, in- cluding President Erdogan. [...] Concluding the Realist Chapter: Acquiring Nuclear Weaponry In realist theory, there exists a distinction between a ‘hard’ and a ‘soft’ point of view when it comes to security measures in the field of nuclear proliferation. [...] Furthermore, it has been observed that there has been dialogue on the issue of acquiring123 nuclear proliferation can shed greater light as to why Türkiye does not have nuclear capabilities yet or why the realization of such a program may be achieved in the coming decades, as ex- pressed by President Erdogan. [...] These declarations are un- precedented in nature, as there has never been such an open and direct proclamation done at the governmental-level that showcases a po- tential inclination toward the development of nuclear weapons. The explanation for this par- adox resides in the symbolic values attached to nuclear weapons and how they are perceived to enhance a state’s international bargaining p [...] In a way, this NPT regime is not only a reassurance for states that their potential adversaries’ nuclear programs are limited, but it can also be employed as an empowerment tool for domestic actors that are opposed to the development of nuclear weapons (Sagan 1996, 72). [...] These statements have played a significant role in allowing President Erdogan to position himself as the leader of a great – or aspiring – state (Niphi and Ramana 2023, 257). [...] At this point in time, a number of factors as well as multilateral interests and commitments favor restraint in the develop- ment of nuclear weapons, especially as Ankara is under pressure to uphold international agree- ments and transparency.