Responding to Shocks and Vulnerabilities by Social Protection Adaptive Systems in Mali

The share of security spending in Mali’s budgets has been increasing during the ten last year, making the allocation of much needed money to social services and development increasingly challenging. [...] However, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the political crisis led to a recession in 2020, in which GDP shrank by 2%.3 1.1. [...] The amount collected in tax was relatively stable from 2010 to 2014 and then grew from 12.6 percent of GDP in 2014 to 15.2 percent in 2017, mostly on account of tax administration reforms under the (RMTF). [...] In general, when analyzing the below table, it is easy to see that budgetary revenue from CFAF 843 billion to CFAF 1 181.6 billion between 2013 and 2018, an increase of 41%. [...] The budgetary revenues are made up of tax, non-tax and capital revenues. Please see the figure 1.5 on Evolution of revenues and grant from 2013 to 2018 in billion. [...] The size of current expenditure as a share of GDP has remained broadly stable at 12 percent during the 2010s (from 11.4 in 2010 to 12.6 percent in 2019) and had remained unaffected by changes in revenue, especially the revenue contractions in in 2012 and 2018. 1.2. [...] Increasing spending mainly on security reduces the fiscal space for spending in other priority areas. However, the Government expenditure reached 25.5 percent of GDP in 2020 particularly on social protection sector due to the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on health, economic support, and social aid. [...] For example, Mali spent 3.8% of GDP on education in 2018, slightly less than the average (4.2%) and then most peer countries. 2. [...] Its sustainability and extension are therefore a major concern for all actors. However, the proportion of the Malian population, particularly vulnerable households, covered by the various social protection schemes is barely 20% and remains low compared to the country's needs. The security situation and the COVID-19 crises have accentuated the need for social protection in Mali, particularly fo [...] Mali can achieve a primary budget surplus of 0.4% of GDP (WB public Fin Exp.2021) to support in general social protection systems. The country's fiscal effort has been robust and rising.