A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of South Africa’s Covid-19 Vaccination Programme

Method: We modelled the costs, expressed in 2021 US$, and health outcomes of the COVID-19 vaccination programme compared to a no vaccination programme scenario. [...] Introduction The rollout of COVID-19 vaccination programmes in many countries contributed to halting the global COVID-19 pandemic. [...] In this study, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of South Africa’s COVID-19 vaccination programme in its first two years of imple- mentation. [...] The first period captured the initial phase of the programme when vaccination supply and uptake were at a peak [14] (Fig.1). [...] The economic model used epidemiological outputs from a COVID-19 disease transmission model [15] adapted to assess the health impact of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in South Africa. 3. [...] Briefly, the NCEM is an age-structured, multi-strain, compartmental transmission model of COVID-19, calibrated to estimate the incidence of COVID-19 infections, hospitalisations, and deaths in South Africa. [...] Base case analysis The economic model estimated the costs and health outcomes of the COVID-19 vaccination programme compared to a no vaccination sce- nario drawing on outputs from the NCVM. [...] Discussion In this study, we retrospectively assessed the cost-effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in South Africa over time horizons (nine months and twenty-four months) that represented different phases of vaccine rollout. [...] Finally, in the second year of the programme, the COVID-19 vacci- nation programme was expanded to include a wider age group. [...] The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM): Estimating cases, admissions and deaths for the first wave of COVID-19 in South Africa. PLOS Glob Public Health Apr. 2023;3(4):e0001070.