Overview: The Pandemic, Pupil Attendance and Achievement

• Variation in restrictions during autumn 2020 that restricted social contact (but that were not aimed at schools) caused higher rates of school absence at the time and in subsequent years. • The school attendance of pupils from lower socio-economic groups was much more strongly impacted by variation in restrictions. • A 10% increase in absences induced by the local 2020 pandemic policies persiste [...] It is likely that the increased absences reflect a shift in family attitudes to attendance induced by local pupil health policies, school and work restrictions of the time, that has persisted post pandemic. [...] We do not find effects on secondary school achievement, although changes to GCSE exams over this period make it likely that the measures do not properly capture the effect of absences on knowledge and skills. Our focus on autumn 2020 is motivated by the fact that, at this time, a regime of local regulations was in place (the tier regulations, explained further below) that generated differen [...] The first question we ask is to what extent local policy variation had an impact on school absence at the time of these restrictions (even though schools were allowed to open for pupils; schooling was not part of these tier regulations). We use data from a survey of schools on absence, linked to information on policy location and timing to address this question. [...] FORCED VERSUS UNFORCED ABSENCE A crucial issue to remember is that schools were open during the autumn 2020 period (apart from two weeks in the second national lockdown), and much of the absence observed this term was not enforced by schools or by government. [...] The way in which absences translate into future achievement differs between subgroups of pupils. Even though more disadvantaged pupils have greater sensitivity to pandemic policies, the effects on KS2 maths scores are larger for more advantaged pupils (although9 not always by an amount that is statistically significant). [...] It is possible that this reflects a smaller relationship between absences and achievement in the lower part of the distribution. [...] When we look at GCSE results, although there is a negative correlation between absences and pupil achievement, we do not find any detectable causal effect of absence that is induced by policy variation during the pandemic on achievement. [...] CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS Variation in policy restrictions during the pandemic had large unintended consequences for pupil absence at the time and in subsequent years. This happened despite the fact schools were ostensibly open and we show that effects are not driven by pupils needing to self- isolate. [...] The influence of time spent in Tier 2 and Tier 3 relative to Tier 1 points to restrictions on social interactions playing a major role, since it was in this respect that the high-risk tiers were more constraining.