Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and as an air pollutant contributes to tropospheric ozone formation, which is detrimental to health. About 60% of total global methane emissions stems from anthropogenic emissions, and about 40% from natural sources. In 2022, Europe contributed to 5.2% of the global anthropogenic methane emissions. \nSatellites are now commonly used to track methane leakages from fossil fuel production sites, transmission systems, ships and distribution systems, which remain the largest source of uncertainties regarding emissions. Based on the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) global surface observation network, the concentration in 2017-2023, is close to the value of 1925 ppb and, by 2030, is projected to reach 1796 to 2099 ppb depending on which scenario is considered.\nA significant proportion of European population is still exposed to concentrations of ozone that are near or above the target values set by the EU legislation and the WHO guidelines. Compared to 2015, the number of premature deaths associated to methane related background ozone in Europe in 2050 is projected to increase by 7000 to 8000 (68% to 78%) compared to 2015 for the high emission scenarios and decrease by 700 to 1700 (-7% to -16%) for the high mitigation scenarios.\nRegarding impacts on agriculture and major crops, our results for the high emission scenarios, show global crop yield losses increasing by 13% to 16% in 2030 compared to 2015 and decreasing by 32% to 37% for the high mitigation scenarios.\nThe Global Methane Pledge (GMP) is a collectively voluntary commitment to reduce global anthropogenic methane emissions across all sectors by at least 30 percent below 2020 levels by 2030 that was launched at COP26 by the European Union and the United States. If all actions were implemented globally to their maximum technical mitigation potential, the emission reduction would be beyond the GMP goal. International cooperation engaging public and private bodies will be key to curb methane emissions and their impact on air quality. This report is intended to inform the implementation and monitoring of the EU strategy to reduce methane emissions (COM/2020/663), although it is not formally linked to the process.
Authors
BESSAGNET Bertrand, BELIS Claudio, CRIPPA Monica, DENTENER Frank, VAN DINGENEN Rita, THUNIS Philippe
Related Organizations
- Other identifiers
- EUR 32005 EN,OP KJ-NA-32-005-EN-N (online)
- Pages
- 81
- Published in
- Belgium
- Rights Holder
- https://ec.europa.eu/info/legal-notice_en#copyright-notice
Table of Contents
- Contents 3
- Abstract 5
- Foreword 6
- Acknowledgements 7
- Executive summary 8
- 1 Introduction 11
- 2 The global methane budget trends and changing background ozone 13
- 2.1 The global methane CH budget 13
- 2.2 Observationally derived CH trends 14
- 2.3 Policy framework and initiatives at the global and EU level 16
- 2.4 Ozone trends and links to methane 18
- 3 Trends of anthropogenic CH emissions 22
- 3.1 Past CH emissions 22
- 3.2 Sectoral break-down of anthropogenic CH emissions. 25
- 3.3 Future CH emissions 26
- 4 Air quality impacts of CH emissions 38
- 4.1 Current O exposure patterns 38
- 4.2 Future trends in background O related to CH emissions 39
- 4.3 Future health impacts from CH -induced O 40
- 4.4 Future crop impacts from CH -induced O 43
- 4.5 Summary of impacts 44
- 5 Conclusions 46
- 5.1 Current understanding of observed changes of CH and O concentrations 46
- 5.2 Current knowledge on the geographical distribution of CH emissions and on 46
- 5.3 Policy-relevant CH emission scenarios until 2050 and contributions to O 47
- 5.4 Benefits for human health crops and climate of CH emission reductions in 47
- 5.5 Promising economic sectors to effectively achieve CH emission reductions 48
- 5.6 The way forward 48
- References 50
- List of abbreviations and definitions 59
- List of figures 61
- List of tables 63
- Annexes 64
- Annex 1. The EDGAR v8.0 CH emissions 64
- Annex 2. Sectoral break-down of the anthropogenic CH emissions 66
- Annex 3. Description of the emission Scenarios 71
- Annex 4. Overview of methane-focused mitigation measures whose inclusion in Nationally Determined Contributions 76
- Annex 5. World regions aggregation 78
- Region name Aggregation 78
- North America US Canada up to 66 N polar circle 78
- Europe Western Eastern EU Turkey up to 66 N polar circle 78
- South Asia India Pakistan Nepal Bangladesh Sri Lanka 78
- East Asia China Korea Japan 78
- South East Asia South East Asia 78
- PAC-AUSNZL Pacific Australia New Zealand 78
- North Africa Northern Africa 78
- South Africa Sub Saharan Africa 78
- Middle East Middle East Gulf countries Iran Iraq 78
- Central America Mexico Central America Caribbean Guyanas Venezuela Columbia 78
- South America South America 78
- Rus Bel Ukr Russia Belarus Ukraine 78
- CAS Central Asian Republics 78
- Annex 6. O impact on health and crop yields 79
- Getting in touch with the EU 80
- Finding information about the EU 80
- The Joint Research Centre JRC provides independent evidence-based knowledge and science supporting EU policies to positively impact society 81
